Iran’s Elections: Pezeshkian vs. Jalili

Iran’s Elections: Pezeshkian vs. Jalili

By Reza Ganjavi, 6 July 2024

Tabriz: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8r-PPFoVbZ/

Last night, Dr. Pezeshkian won the elections against Saeed Jalili. Jalili in my view is a dangerous, dogmatic, fanatic hardliner who reportedly has serious management and personality issues; issues which Dr. Pezeshkian highlighted, for example, Jalili’s incompetent hard nose, arrogant, fanatic, backwards mentality and style of so-called negotiation. Dr. P. pointed out that there is more to negotiations than entering them with a hard-nose attitude and walking out with more sanctions against the people because of your uncompromising, arrogant, incompetent attitude. Mr. Jalili misinterpreted this exposé as “he wants to go in a meeting, give away things, blah blah”. Dr. P. was talking about the true spirit of dialogue and intention to get results and work out differences which the hardliner, Jalili is clueless about. It remains to be seen if Dr. P. can live up to the expectations he sets. As the saying goes, the road to hell is paved with good intentions!

Jalili got support from the fanatic layer of the society who fell for his hardliner, arrogant attitudes such as “Dr. P. want to negotiate with countries that we don’t need – since there are so many other countries”, which is an ignorant idea arising for Jalili’s hatred for the West which happen to include some of the biggest economies and potential trading partners. Dr. P. understands that it is to the benefit of Iranian people to have normalized, peaceful, mutually respectful relationship with the rest of the world. Jalili’s favorite places to do business with are China, Venezuela, North Korea, Sudan etc., but you can't have a healthy economy if you're isolating yourself from Canada, USA, UK, and the European Union, all of whom had adversarial relationships with Iran for one reason or others, be it the nuclear program or support of groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemeni Houthis, all of whom have had adversarial relationships with the world’s economic powers.

Dr. P., called himself a “Hezbollahi” and took responsibility for the dire mess Iranian economy and people are in. He said “we have failed”, “people have turned their back to us”, etc. – and he claimed that he has the competence, courage, intelligence, good intentions, to lead and seek solutions from experts, for the betterment of the country and people's quality of life - but again, talk is cheap and it remains to be seen if he can deliver results that benefit the people. Jalili’s gang have reportedly concentrated their power and assignments to their own followers and have excluded so many people, competent people, experts, young and highly intelligent and educated people who are escaping the country because of the economic illness which is a direct result of the Jalili-like policies of isolation and an adversarial relationship with many countries.

A university student told Dr. P. in a pre-election meeting that he sees no future in Iran and him and his friends all want to finish their studies and escape Iran in search of a better life. Why?? That is a shame. Iran has an incredibly talented pool of youngsters, and their aim is to leave the country because of the crippled, cancerous economy. I had a taxi driver who had finished his medical degree as top student of the best university in Iran, and yet he had to drive a taxi on the side, to make money to pay for parts for his car! And I had taxi driver who was a lawyer with 20 years of experience!

The supporters of Dr. Pezeshkian argue: 

1) People’s lives within Iran is getting increasingly worse. Once you could buy a dollar with 7 tomans. Today you have to pay 60,000 tomans to buy a dollar [eventually it went up to 135,000 toman which is "theft from people's dinner tables"].  And it’s not surprising. Crippling sanctions, devastatingly incompetent mismanagement of the country because as Dr. P. said people are put in key roles due to nepotism, who have no idea how to do the job. And they screw up. And there’s wide-spread theft and corruption, always at the cost of public treasury.

2) There is no hope for any opposition from abroad to do anything that benefit people's lives, because Reza Pahlavi is one of the most incompetent, inexperienced, unintelligent, coward, arrogant, clueless people around. For 45 years he’s been talking, with no clue whatsoever what reform means, what it takes to achieve goals, any goals. He’s never had a job for one day in which he was accountable. He grew up in silk clothes and fed with golden spoons, and his mother has been funding his life with her reportedly billions, and he’s not an independent thinker but just a talking head of his mother and some others, therefore, he’s highly inconsistent and hypocritical. Finally after 45 years of doing zilch, yesterday I heard him spell out a pathetic 5-point plan, which was a regurgitation of the same nonsense he’s been repeating for decades, and absolutely impractical. At the core of it is a hope that European countries will force a regime change in Iran, but the food does not understand that Europeans have no interest in doing so, even assuming they could.

3) Reza Pahlavi has debilitated opposition outside the country that could theoretically help improve people’s lives. Scholars know that political geniuses are rare -- like Reza Pahlavi’s grandfather whom the experts consider as a genius, and that just by being a son or grandson does not mean you inherit talents of your father or grandfather. But all his fanatic followers cite him because of his father and grandfather – since his own resumé is absolutely void of any significant accomplishment beyond tying his shoe laces.

4) There is no hope of any foreign power bringing change within Iran.  Any such hope is a delusion, given the state of the world. They don't care about Iran, except if they can economically benefit. History has proven that.

5) Therefore, the only chance for reform is from within Iran. The prospects of reform by an insider like Dr. Pezeshkian is intriguing but highly doubtful if status quo can change itself. 

Yet, Reza Pahlavi, Ali Karimi, and others boycotted the elections as a way to send a signal to the world that the majority of people don’t endorse this regime. I don’t believe such a signal would make any difference whatsoever in the lives of Iranian people who are under tremendous suffering and hardship.

Dr. Pezeshkian supporters are also assuming: 

1. Possibly the Supreme Leader is fearing the masses who are hungry.

2. And as he gets closer to death due to illness and old age, he may be afraid of the curse of millions, so his aim may be to try to improve people’s lives before he dies, via some reform.

3. Or he may believe that the “other world” may not be so nice for him, where he might be held accountable for the suffering of people, and huge loss of their quality of life, due to horrible inflation, irresponsible monetary policy, widespread corruption, etc. while the kids of many leaders are driving Lamborghinis and have private yachts while average person has to work multiple jobs to feed his or her family.

4. He may be afraid of chronic immoral liar, Donald Trump becoming President again. So, the Supreme Leader may be looking to normalize relations with the world ahead of US elections – or at least to signal that we are going the right way. Again, perhaps wishful thinking. 

The above suppositions could be false if the Supreme Leader is highly believing in the rhetoric that are shouted in his presence, slogans of Death to USA, Israel, England, etc.  – but some believe or hope that he wants reform – and his sun Mojtaba also reportedly wants reform and bettering of relations with USA. But these ideas could be wishful thinking. The reality, I suspect, is a harsh picture of status quo and its economic and ideological interests wanting to sustain itself - at the cost of people's quality of life. 

Jalili talks in a strangely formal and fanatical. No ordinary person, even the highest educated, ever talk like that. The debates highlighted how dangerously fanatic Jalili is. And he lacks pragmatic experience and track record. His incompetent, hard nose political history has brought people of Iran many crippling sanctions and economic hardship.