Why I am cautiously optimistic about Iran’s future

By Reza Ganjavi, 6 July 2024

Tabriz: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8r-PPFoVbZ/

A couple of weeks ago I sent a message to a lot of Iranian friends urging them to vote for Dr. Pezeshkian. I saw a light at the end of the tunnel, based on a number of perceptions and suppositions.

Last night, Dr. Pezeshkian won the elections against Saeed Jalili, whom I view as a dangerous, dogmatic, fanatic hardliner who reportedly has serious management and personality issues; issues which Dr. Pezeshkian brilliantly highlighted, for example, Jalili’s incompetent hard nose, arrogant, fanatic, backwards mentality and style of so-called negotiation. Dr. P. brilliantly pointed out that there is more to negotiations than entering them with a hard-nose attitude and walking out with more sanctions against the people because of your uncompromising, arrogant, incompetent attitude. Mr. Jalili misinterpreted this exposé as “he wants to go in a meeting, give away things, blah blah”. NO. That’s not what Dr. P. said, and it’s not what he meant. He was talking about the true spirit of dialogue and intention to get results and work out differences which the hardliner, Jalili is clueless about.

Jalili got support from the fanatic layer of the society who fell for his hardline arrogant attitudes such as “Dr. P. want to negotiate with countries that we don’t need – since there are so many other countries”, which is an ignorant idea arising for Jalili’s hatred for the biggest economies in the world such as America, which Dr. P. understands that it is to the benefit of Iranian people to have normalized, peaceful, mutually respectful relationship with the rest of the world, including Jalili’s favorite places to do business with, such as Venezuela and Sudan etc. – as well as leading world economies like Canada, USA, UK, and the European Union, all of whom had adversarial relationships with Iran for one reason or others, be it the nuclear program or support of groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemeni Houthis, all of whom had adversarial relationships with the world’s economic powers.

Dr. P., calling himself a “Hezbollahi” took responsibility for the dire mess Iranian economy and people are in. He said “we have failed”, “people have turned their back to us”, etc. – and he has the competence, courage, charisma, genes, intelligence, good intentions, to most importantly understand and acknowledge the problem, and then seek a solution from experts. Unlike Jalili’s gang who have reportedly concentrated their power and assignments to their own followers and have excluded so many people, competent people, experts, young highly intelligent, educated people who are escaping the country.

A university student told Dr. P. in a pre-election meeting that he sees no future in Iran and him and his friends all want to finish their studies and escape Iran in search of a better life. Why?? That is a shame. Iran has an incredibly talented pool of youngsters, and their aim is to leave the country because of the crippled, cancerous economy. I had a taxi driver who had finished his medical degree as top student of the best university in Iran, and yet he had to drive a taxi on the side, to make money to pay for parts for his car!

I had taxi driver who was a lawyer with 20 years of experience!

I am optimistic with the win of Dr. Pezeshkian but it didn’t come easy.

I supported Dr. Pezeshkian because :

1) I see people’s lives within Iran getting increasingly worse. Once you could buy a dollar with 7 tomans. Today you have to pay 60,000 tomans to buy a dollar! And it’s not surprising. Crippling sanctions, devastatingly incompetent mismanagement of the country because as Dr. P. said people are put in key roles due to nepotism, who have no idea how to do the job. And they screw up. And there’s wide-spread theft and corruption, always at the cost of public treasury.

2) I absolutely have no hope for any opposition from abroad because of Reza Pahlavi who is one of the most unintelligent, coward, and incompetent people I’ve ever come across. For 45 years he’s been babbling, with no clue whatsoever what reform means, what it takes to achieve goals, any goals. He’s never had a job for one day in which he was accountable. He grew up in silk clothes and fed with golden spoons, and his mother has been funding his life with her reportedly billions, and he’s not an independent thinker but just a talking head of his mother and some others, therefore, he’s highly inconsistent and hypocritical. Finally after 45 years of doing zilch, yesterday I heard him spell out a pathetic 5-point plan, which was a regurgitation of the same nonsense he’s been repeating for decades, and absolutely impractical. At the core of it is a hope that European countries will force a regime change in Iran, but the food does not understand that Europeans have no interest in doing so, even assuming they could.

3) Reza Pahlavi has debilitated opposition outside the country that could theoretically help improve people’s lives. Scholars know that political geniuses are rare -- like Reza Pahlavi’s grandfather whom the experts consider as a genius, and that just by being a son or grandson does not mean you inherit talents of your father or grandfather. But all his fanatic followers cite him because of his father and grandfather – since his own resumé is absolutely void of any significant accomplishment beyond tying his shoe laces.

4) I have no hope of any foreign power bringing change within Iran.  Any such hope is a delusion, given the state of the world.

5) Therefore, the only chance for reform is from within Iran. And by whom better than a total insider, Dr. Pezeshkian, who is not only extremely intelligent, open-minded, competent – but also caters to the religiously inclined people by citing the Koran which he seems to know better than any of the other candidates on the debate stage. From within can bring most effective change. Something I predicted decades ago. It took a long time. But it’s happening before our eyes. It’s too bad that people’s quality of life had to get so bad, for it to happen.

Yet, Reza Pahlavi, Ali Karimi, and others boycotted the elections as a way to send a signal to the world that the majority of people don’t endorse this regime. I am a pragmatic man. I don’t believe such a signal would make any difference whatsoever in the lives of Iranian people who are under tremendous suffering and hardship.

I also formed my support for Dr. Pezeshkian based on the assumptions that

·      Possibly, just maybe the Supreme Leader is fearing the masses who are hungry.

·      And as he gets closer to death due to illness and old age, he may be afraid of the curse of millions, so his aim may be to try to improve people’s lives before he dies, via some reform.

·      Or he may believe that the “other world” may not be so nice for him, where he might be held accountable for the suffering of people, and huge loss of their quality of life, due to horrible inflation, irresponsible monetary policy, widespread corruption, etc. while the kids of many leaders are driving Lamborghinis and have private yachts while average person has to work multiple jobs to feed his or her family.

·      He may be afraid of the crazy man, chronic immoral liar, Donald Trump becoming President again (which is only possible if Biden who has lost it, does not step aside). So the Supreme Leader may be looking to normalize relations with the world ahead of US elections – or at least to signal that we are going the right way.

The above supposition could be false if the Supreme Leader is highly believing in the rhetoric that are shouted in his presence, slogans of Death to USA, Israel, England, etc.  – but I believe, perhaps wrongly, that deep inside, he wants reform – and his sun Mojtaba also reportedly wants reform and bettering of relations with USA.

Jalili talks like the Supreme Leader – in the same fashion. And he talks in a formal way that average person does not talk, even the most educated and high class people I know and grew up hearing – nobody talks like Jalili. Jalili is dangerously fanatic. The debates really highlighted it. And he’s lacking pragmatic experience and track record. His incompetent, hard nose political history has brought people of Iran many crippling sanctions.

I wholeheartedly disagreed with people who boycotted the elections. Not voting was like voting for Jalili which would send Iran further down a dangerous path of isolation. Majority of people still did not vote. Many have lost hope in the political process, and assumed the next President will be selected independent of people’s votes.

I believe that people’s votes do count, even in Iran. And it did. And Dr. Pezeshkian won, which I believe is a historic time for Iran. I am optimistic about Iran’s future. Never underestimate a courageous, visionary, highly intelligent Azeri.  Dr. P., is half Azeri, half Kurd. His Farsi speaking has many influences o Azeri  -- he pronounces many words like the way Turkish (Azeri) speaking people pronounce it. Azeris have been critical in history of Iran. Their determination and courage and stamina are notable. I’m proud to be a Torke Tabatabaaii (both my parents are of Azeri Turkish ethnicity.

I am relieved that Jalili is not the President otherwise it would be guaranteed that Iran would get worse, more isolated, and economy would get worse. He is too dumb to understand a hard-nose, isolated stance means poverty not prosperity. Iran was one of the richest countries in the world, and only due to mismanagement people’s quality of life got so bad.

The incompetent loser Reza Pahlavi must be upset. His donation collection machine may dry up when Iran transforms into a moderate, peaceful state that is in harmony with the world. Fingers crossed. Ensha-allah. God willing.

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